Planning Fallacy

Planning Fallacy

The planning trap, also known as the "planning fallacy", is a psychological phenomenon that often occurs in human decision-making processes. This tendency to fall into the planning trap basically means that people tend to underestimate the time, resources and difficulties of a future project. This can occur in various areas of life, be it planning projects at work, scheduling personal endeavours or even estimating the duration of a daily commute.

The planning trap is closely linked to the optimism and hope biases, where people tend to view future events as more positive and less risky than is likely to be the case. This often leads to projects taking longer, requiring more resources and being more complicated than originally planned.

Another aspect of the planning trap is the tendency to focus on successful examples from the past and assume that future projects will run just as smoothly. This can lead to unrealistic expectations.

To counteract the planning trap, it is important to carry out realistic and critical planning, take risks and uncertainties into account and allow for buffer times. Utilising historical data and obtaining expert opinions can also help to create more realistic estimates and plans.

In the business world, the planning trap can have a significant impact on the success of projects, as it can lead to delays, budget overruns and frustration. Recognising and overcoming this phenomenon is therefore of great importance.

To summarise, the planning trap is a common psychological phenomenon in which people tend to underestimate the requirements and time needed for future projects. This can lead to unrealistic expectations and problems, especially in business contexts. To counteract this phenomenon, it is important to plan realistically, take risks into account and allow for buffer times.

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